No change in the repo rate, and monetary policy continues to be neutral.
Looking into 2018-19, RBI expects inflation to end the year at about 4.5% - steady as the year that just got over. Growth is expected to pick to 7.4% from 6.6% last year. Unless government spends much more, my sense is that this pick-up may not materialise. See my recent blog on the sharp portentous fall in the deposit growth in the year that just got over, combined with weak credit growth.
At this point in time, I see no change in the policy rate over the next year.
The rupee has since the start of the financial year fallen by 4% against the U.S. Dollar. Will the RBI raise the key policy rate as a way of stemming the fall of the rupee. I doubt it, unless there is a precipitous fall. This fall in the rupee should be welcome - I have been saying for some time that the Rupee on a real basis has been signficantly overvalued against a basket of currencies.
The RBI's media calls have become boring after the usefully long, interactive, and educative calls at the time of the former Governor Rajan. And now analyst call transcripts are not made public.
Looking into 2018-19, RBI expects inflation to end the year at about 4.5% - steady as the year that just got over. Growth is expected to pick to 7.4% from 6.6% last year. Unless government spends much more, my sense is that this pick-up may not materialise. See my recent blog on the sharp portentous fall in the deposit growth in the year that just got over, combined with weak credit growth.
At this point in time, I see no change in the policy rate over the next year.
The rupee has since the start of the financial year fallen by 4% against the U.S. Dollar. Will the RBI raise the key policy rate as a way of stemming the fall of the rupee. I doubt it, unless there is a precipitous fall. This fall in the rupee should be welcome - I have been saying for some time that the Rupee on a real basis has been signficantly overvalued against a basket of currencies.
The RBI's media calls have become boring after the usefully long, interactive, and educative calls at the time of the former Governor Rajan. And now analyst call transcripts are not made public.
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