Monday 24 November 2014

Kotak Mahindra’s Bank acquisition of ING Vysya Bank: the difficult part comes now

Timely and effective integration of ING Vysya staff and managers will be key to success

RBI Watch                                                                                                                    Banking Structure 

India’s regulations do not allow for a hostile takeover of one bank by another. Friendly takeovers are allowed, and this is done through the board approved merger route. For those interested in the regulatory detail (surprisingly easy to digest), please see this link.

In keeping with this, the boards of Kotak Mahindra Bank and ING Vysya Bank announced their decision to merge – ING Vysya Bank will amalgamate with Kotak Mahindra Bank in all stock deal. Here is an example of two strong parties coming together with the potential to become even stronger.
Uday Kotak was under considerable pressure to reduce his promoter stake in Kotak Bank by the RBI even as ING Group, especially after the financial crisis of 2008, was keen to give up its promoter status at ING Vysya. Kotak is considered a North and West based Bank, while ING Vysya is a South based bank; Kotak has a stronger presence in retail, whereas ING Vysya has a stronger presence in SME. So there is a congruence of promoter and business interests. And the deal has come cheaper for Kotak than some recent deals.

It looks likely that getting the necessary regulatory approvals will not be a major problem – either from the RBI or the Competition Commission of India. This will take about a year.
To my mind, the real difficult part for Kotak Mahindra Bank is after the acquisition: Kotak Mahindra Bank has a unique culture which accounts hugely for its success, and can it get the ING Vysya staff and managers to evolve into ‘’Kotakans’’. 

Kotak Mahindra Bank’s culture is less about form and almost totally about performance. It inculcates in its staff and managers to be fair, encourages open debate on tough issues, rewards merit generously, gives young staff greater responsibility than at other banks; yet expects it staff and managers to follow the rules and regulations.

Kotak Bank managers work very long hours – to finish work at 8-00 pm appears to be routine. I remember recently meeting by chance a young mother and her son on a train. When I asked her what her husband did she told me he was a Kotak Mahindra bank manager of one of the tier 2 city branches. She glowed with pride that her husband worked at Kotak Mahindra Bank, but she also made it clear that her husband spent long hours at work.

ING Vysya’s culture is different. Sure it has had a very experienced and progressive CEO during the last five years, who has built a good bank. Yet ING Vysya comes with some of the trappings of an old private sector bank. Its staff is more unionised, many come under the IBA wage structure, and are likely to be older than Kotak Bank staff.
Then there is the issue of finding work for those of the ING Vysya staff who in due course are found to be surplus. Kotak Mahindra Bank has announced that efforts will be made to find suitable roles for them in the rest of the Kotak Group.

Uday Kotak and his top team are aware of these challenges, and I am sure will start working on these issues right away. Newspapers have reported that Uday Sareen, the CEO designate at ING Vysya, will report directly to Uday Kotak after the acquisition. Surely, his role will be to tell Uday Kotak and his top team  not just the nuts and bolts of ING Vysya’s business, but of its culture – the formal, and more importantly, the informal rules of getting things done at his former bank –employees, and union. And when does his role start? I guess he needs to be also an Advisor to Kotak Mahindra Bank during the next year or so when the regulatory approvals will be in place.  There have been reports that Uday Sareen has already started meeting employees in town hall meetings.

Despite the challenges, I believe Kotak Mahindra Bank will succeed in getting the ING Vysya staff and managers to become ‘’Kotakans’’. Kotak Mahindra Bank will have its hands full over the next three years, and there will be some ‘’icebergs’’ along the way that will require deft handling.


Uday Kotak is considered by many a financial wizard. His real strength, to my mind, has been his soft skill: his ability to build a solid team and organisation. Perhaps the New Year will see him addressing some town hall meetings.

Thursday 6 November 2014

The future of Google

Indian Stock Market Watch
S&P 500 Watch


A day after I wrote a blog titled "Amazon’s performance critical for investors and the tech industry"on October 30, FT published an interview with Larry Page, Co-Founder of Google, which to my mind is compulsory reading to investors and those interested in the future of the tech industry. 

In my article, I had questioned Amazon's valuation, compared it with Google, and questioned the strategy of "visionaries at companies such as Google, Facebook (Amazon is an extreme example) pursuing long term profits but doing so through highly speculative, or shall I say forward looking, investments in fairly diverse industries". 

Now FT reports that Larry Page is considering changing Google's mission statement: to "organise the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful" appears too restrictive for its ambitions and idealism.
FT  reports that Steve Jobs told Larry Page "He would always tell me, You are doing too much stuff".

It is clear that for all the things that Google wants to do it needs a different kind of corporate structure, appropriate for both its investors and the conversions of these explorations into successful businesses/industries. FT reports that Larry Page admits that there is no model for the kind of company Google wants to become.

These are fascinating times indeed!




Tuesday 4 November 2014

Monitoring the NaMo Bull Market in Stocks: Update as of end October 2014

Indian Stock Market Watch










Please refer to my blog of July 9, 2014 for the original note on using TMV/GNP ratio to gauge

whether market is cheap or expensive.