Tuesday 16 January 2018

The value of the Rupee: update as of December 2017

Rupee overvaluation in real terms has now reached the highest level since the start of the financial year in 2004 

Against a basket of 36 currencies on a trade weighted basis, the rupee real effective exchange rate index exceeds 120.

On the other hand, the Indian stock market on a rupee basis by the measure I follow - totoal market capitalisation of the stock market to GNP - is still not in bubble territory, but it is getting there. 

2018  could well be a crucial year for investors: we may see a convergence of both a bubble in the fx market and the stock market. 









Please also read my April 25, 2014 blog titled "Is the Rupee fairly valued?" and my monthly blogs.