Wednesday 31 October 2018

The flow of money up to Q2 2018-19 : trend continues

Pick up in credit growth extends - deposit growth weak

Deposit and credit growth

Please see my earlier blog on this subject.

The tables below give the picture over the last one year. Let's look at it using another time frame also.

In the last two years (Sept. over Sept., 2016-17 and 2017-18) covering demonetisation and GST, deposit growth fell to 8.4% from the earlier two years (Sept. over Sept., 2014-15 and 2016-17) number of 11.3% - a very sharp fall.

Credit grow in the last two years (Sept. over Sept., 2016-17 and 2017-18) covering demonetisation and GST is now about the same level as compared to the earlier two years (Sept. over Sept., 2014-15 and 2016-17) number of 10%. So although there is a pick-up in credit growth in the last year, as seen in the table below, it is over a two year period just a return to normalcy.







Money Supply 

Instead of looking at just the last year, as in the case of bank deposits and credits, let's look at a longer time frame.

In the last two years (Sept. over Sept., 2016-17 and 2017-18) covering demonetisation and GST, money supply growth fell to 8 % from the earlier two years (Sept. over Sept., 2014-15 and 2016-17) number of 11.5% - a sharp fall.  Normally a central bank, including the RBI, targets to grow money supply in the same order as the nominal growth of the economy. 





Reserve Money















Tuesday 30 October 2018

The value of the Rupee: update as of September 2018

From its peak in January, the rupee has fallen sharply on a real basis 

Below the usual monthly tables on the rupee.

On another note, the rupee's real effective exchange rate (REER) peaked in January this year at 122. Up to September,  using this measure the rupee has fallen by 9%.  On a noninal effective exchange rate (NEER) basis, the rupee has fallen by 7% during the same period.





Monday 1 October 2018

Monitoring the NaMo Bull Market in Stocks: Update as of September 2018







Please see my blog of July 9, 2014 for the original note on using TMV/GNP ratio to gauge whether the market is cheap or expensive, and my nonthly blogs on this subject.



India Market Map: September 2018


Foreign Exchange



Stocks


Government Bonds





Gold


Money Market


Policy Rates


Bank Deposits


Public Provident Fund


Post Office


Home Loans 


Real Estate